Michigan State
Men - Women
2011 - 2012 - 2013
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
38  Sara Kroll JR 19:39
102  Leah O'Connor SO 20:02
172  Rachel McFarlane SR 20:18
183  Julia Otwell JR 20:20
217  Olivia Sydow SR 20:25
239  Lindsay Clark FR 20:27
372  Emma Drenth FR 20:45
442  Megan Rodgers JR 20:52
480  Katie Landwehr FR 20:56
660  Melanie Brender SO 21:10
734  Veronica Wilson SR 21:16
998  Jana Sedlacek FR 21:34
1,724  Katie Haines SR 22:20
National Rank #14 of 339
Great Lakes Region Rank #2 of 33
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 97.6%
Most Likely Finish 16th at Nationals


National Champion 0.1%
Top 5 at Nationals 2.8%
Top 10 at Nationals 18.2%
Top 20 at Nationals 71.1%


Regional Champion 14.5%
Top 5 in Regional 98.2%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Sara Kroll Leah O'Connor Rachel McFarlane Julia Otwell Olivia Sydow Lindsay Clark Emma Drenth Megan Rodgers Katie Landwehr Melanie Brender Veronica Wilson
Greater Louisville Classic (Gold) 09/29 566 19:47 20:07 20:22 20:45 20:29 20:26 21:00 20:53 20:56 21:10 21:18
Michigan Intercollegiate Championships 10/05 1235
Wisconsin adidas Invitational 10/12 546 19:39 20:00 20:23 20:16 20:42 20:54
Big Ten Championships 10/28 459 19:36 19:48 20:06 20:21 20:32 20:34 20:37 20:57 21:14
Great Lakes Region Championships 11/09 462 19:36 20:04 20:21 20:12 20:18 20:15 20:41
NCAA Championship 11/17 519 19:44 20:14 20:19 20:12 20:27 20:22 20:43





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 97.6% 16.5 430 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.7 1.2 2.0 2.6 2.8 3.3 4.8 5.6 5.5 5.6 5.8 5.3 5.8 5.5 4.8 4.6 4.5 3.9 3.5 3.1 3.0 2.4 2.6 2.6 1.9 1.6 1.1 0.7
Region Championship 100% 2.5 91 14.5 40.0 30.0 10.2 3.5 1.2 0.3 0.2 0.0



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Sara Kroll 99.7% 41.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.4 1.2 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.5 1.5 1.8 1.5 1.7 1.9
Leah O'Connor 97.6% 94.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
Rachel McFarlane 97.6% 140.3
Julia Otwell 97.6% 144.8
Olivia Sydow 97.6% 156.3 0.0
Lindsay Clark 97.6% 164.3
Emma Drenth 97.6% 205.0


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Sara Kroll 3.7 10.9 14.3 14.3 15.1 11.3 9.7 6.8 4.6 4.2 2.6 1.9 1.2 0.9 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Leah O'Connor 11.8 0.2 0.4 0.9 2.2 3.4 5.3 5.5 6.5 6.9 6.6 6.8 6.5 6.1 5.1 5.5 3.7 3.8 3.5 2.8 2.9 2.6 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.4
Rachel McFarlane 22.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 1.0 1.8 1.6 2.0 2.6 2.9 3.0 3.2 3.7 4.2 3.7 3.8 4.5 4.2 4.0 4.2 4.3 3.5
Julia Otwell 23.9 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 1.4 1.1 1.9 2.4 2.5 2.9 3.2 2.8 3.3 3.7 3.7 4.1 3.5 4.4 4.6 3.2 4.1
Olivia Sydow 28.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.7 1.2 1.5 1.6 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.9 3.1 3.4 3.2 3.7 3.8
Lindsay Clark 30.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.2 1.6 2.0 2.2 2.1 2.4 3.1 3.0 2.7 2.7 3.7
Emma Drenth 44.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 14.5% 100.0% 14.5 14.5 1
2 40.0% 100.0% 40.0 40.0 2
3 30.0% 100.0% 1.7 1.9 13.4 10.2 2.6 0.2 0.0 30.0 3
4 10.2% 98.4% 0.1 0.3 2.3 2.4 1.9 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 10.1 4
5 3.5% 82.2% 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.6 2.9 5
6 1.2% 12.9% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.1 0.2 6
7 0.3% 0.3 7
8 0.2% 0.2 8
9 0.0% 0.0 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
Total 100% 97.6% 14.5 40.0 1.7 2.1 13.7 12.5 5.1 2.6 1.5 1.2 1.1 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 2.4 54.5 43.1




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Duke 100.0% 1.0 1.0
Weber State 99.6% 1.0 1.0
Penn State 99.0% 2.0 2.0
Minnesota 98.0% 2.0 2.0
New Mexico 98.0% 1.0 1.0
Connecticut 97.5% 1.0 1.0
Notre Dame 95.3% 1.0 1.0
Vanderbilt 87.8% 2.0 1.8
Toledo 71.9% 1.0 0.7
Boston College 68.1% 1.0 0.7
North Carolina St. 53.9% 1.0 0.5
UCLA 39.1% 1.0 0.4
San Francisco 27.7% 1.0 0.3
Yale 24.0% 1.0 0.2
Princeton 14.9% 1.0 0.1
Wisconsin 12.8% 3.0 0.4
Kentucky 11.2% 1.0 0.1
Georgia 10.8% 2.0 0.2
Northwestern 7.9% 2.0 0.2
Dartmouth 7.5% 1.0 0.1
Mississippi 5.0% 1.0 0.1
Syracuse 3.7% 1.0 0.0
North Carolina 2.9% 1.0 0.0
BYU 2.8% 2.0 0.1
Harvard 2.0% 1.0 0.0
Colorado St. 1.2% 2.0 0.0
Illinois 0.7% 1.0 0.0
Brown 0.5% 1.0 0.0
Ohio State 0.4% 2.0 0.0
Indiana 0.2% 2.0 0.0
Columbia 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Iowa 0.1% 2.0 0.0
Virginia 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Texas A&M 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Northern Arizona 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Cal Poly 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Total 14.8
Minimum 9.0
Maximum 23.0